Accuracy of tropical peat and non-peat fire forecasts enhanced by simulating hydrology.

Soil moisture deficits and water table dynamics are major biophysical controls on peat and non-peat fires in Indonesia. Development of modern fire forecasting models in Indonesia is hampered by the lack of scalable hydrologic datasets or scalable hydrology models that can inform the fire forecasting models on soil hydrologic behaviour. Existing fire forecasting models in Indonesia use weather data-derived fire probability indices, which often do not adequately proxy the sub-surface hydrologic dynamics. Here we demonstrate that soil moisture and water table dynamics can be simulated successfully across tropical peatlands and non-peatland areas by using a process-based eco-hydrology model (ecosys) and publicly available data for weather, soil, and management. Inclusion of these modelled water table depth and soil moisture contents significantly improves the accuracy of a neural network model in predicting active fires at two-weekly time scale. This constitutes an important step towards devising an operational fire early warning system for Indonesia.

Response of Calamagrostis angustifolia to burn frequency and seasonality in the Sanjiang Plain wetlands (Northeast China).

Fire is an important disturbance in many wetlands, which are key carbon reservoirs at both regional and global scales. However, the effects of fire on wetland vegetation biomass and plant carbon dynamics are poorly understood. We carried out a burn experiment in a Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland in Sanjiang Plain (Northeast China), which is widespread wetland type in China and frequently exposed to fire. Using a series of replicated experimental annual burns over a three-year period (spring and autumn burns carried out one, two or three times over three consecutive years), together with a control unburned treatment, we assessed the effect of burn seasonality and frequency on aboveground biomass, stem density, and carbon content of aboveground plant parts and ground litter. We found that burning promoted plant growth and hence plant biomass in burned sites compared to the unburned control, with this effect being greatest after three consecutive burn years. Autumn burns promoted higher stem density and more total aboveground biomass than spring burns after three consecutive burn years. Burning increased stem density significantly, especially in twice and thrice burned plots, with stem densities in September over 2000 N/m2, which was much higher than in the control plots (987 ± 190 N/m2). Autumn burns had a larger effect than spring burns on total plant biomass and litter accumulated (e.g. 1236 ± 295 g/m2 after thrice autumn burns compared 796.2 ± 66.6 g/m2 after thrice spring burns), except after two burn treatments. With time since burning, total biomass loads increased in spring-burned plots, while autumn-burned plots showed the opposite trend, declining towards values found at unburned plots in year three. Our results suggest that, at short fire return intervals, autumn burns lead to a more pronounced increase in aboveground biomass and carbon accumulation than spring burns; however, the effects of spring burns on biomass and carbon accumulation are longer lasting than those observed for autumn burns.

Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply.

2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019-2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation ("200 mm day -1 in several location") that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post-fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long-term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio-economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all-around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire-watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post-fire hydrology.

Boreal forest soil carbon fluxes one year after a wildfire: Effects of burn severity and management.

The extreme 2018 hot drought that affected central and northern Europe led to the worst wildfire season in Sweden in over a century. The Ljusdal fire complex, the largest area burnt that year (8995 ha), offered a rare opportunity to quantify the combined impacts of wildfire and post-fire management on Scandinavian boreal forests. We present chamber measurements of soil CO2 and CH4  fluxes, soil microclimate and nutrient content from five Pinus sylvestris sites for the first growing season after the fire. We analysed the effects of three factors on forest soils: burn severity, salvage-logging and stand age. None of these caused significant differences in soil CH4 uptake. Soil respiration, however, declined significantly after a high-severity fire (complete tree mortality) but not after a low-severity fire (no tree mortality), despite substantial losses of the organic layer. Tree root respiration is thus key in determining post-fire soil CO2 emissions and may benefit, along with heterotrophic respiration, from the nutrient pulse after a low-severity fire. Salvage-logging after a high-severity fire had no significant effects on soil carbon fluxes, microclimate or nutrient content compared with leaving the dead trees standing, although differences are expected to emerge in the long term. In contrast, the impact of stand age was substantial: a young burnt stand experienced more extreme microclimate, lower soil nutrient supply and significantly lower soil respiration than a mature burnt stand, due to a thinner organic layer and the decade-long effects of a previous clear-cut and soil scarification. Disturbance history and burn severity are, therefore, important factors for predicting changes in the boreal forest carbon sink after wildfires. The presented short-term effects and ongoing monitoring will provide essential information for sustainable management strategies in response to the increasing risk of wildfire.

Designing tools to predict and mitigate impacts on water quality following the Australian 2019/2020 wildfires: Insights from Sydney's largest water supply catchment.

The 2019/2020 Australian bushfires (or wildfires) burned the largest forested area in Australia's recorded history, with major socio-economic and environmental consequences. Among the largest fires was the 280 000 ha Green Wattle Creek Fire, which burned large forested areas of the Warragamba catchment. This protected catchment provides critical ecosystem services for Lake Burragorang, one of Australia's largest urban supply reservoirs delivering ~85% of the water used in Greater Sydney. Water New South Wales (WaterNSW) is the utility responsible for managing water quality in Lake Burragorang. Its postfire risk assessment, done in collaboration with researchers in Australia, the UK, and United States, involved (i) identifying pyrogenic contaminants in ash and soil; (ii) quantifying ash loads and contaminant concentrations across the burned area; and (iii) estimating the probability and quantity of soil, ash, and associated contaminant entrainment for different rainfall scenarios. The work included refining the capabilities of the new WEPPcloud-WATAR-AU model (Water Erosion Prediction Project cloud-Wildfire Ash Transport And Risk-Australia) for predicting sediment, ash, and contaminant transport, aided by outcomes from previous collaborative postfire research in the catchment. Approximately two weeks after the Green Wattle Creek Fire was contained, an extreme rainfall event (~276 mm in 72 h) caused extensive ash and sediment delivery into the reservoir. The risk assessment informed on-ground monitoring and operational mitigation measures (deployment of debris-catching booms and adjustment of the water supply system configuration), ensuring the continuity of safe water supply to Sydney. WEPPcloud-WATAR-AU outputs can prioritize recovery interventions for managing water quality risks by quantifying contaminants on the hillslopes, anticipating water contamination risk, and identifying areas with high susceptibility to ash and sediment transport. This collaborative interaction among scientists and water managers, aimed also at refining model capabilities and outputs to meet managers' needs, exemplifies the successful outcomes that can be achieved at the interface of industry and science. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:1151-1161. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Fires prime terrestrial organic carbon for riverine export to the global oceans.

Black carbon (BC) is a recalcitrant form of organic carbon (OC) produced by landscape fires. BC is an important component of the global carbon cycle because, compared to unburned biogenic OC, it is selectively conserved in terrestrial and oceanic pools. Here we show that the dissolved BC (DBC) content of dissolved OC (DOC) is twice greater in major (sub)tropical and high-latitude rivers than in major temperate rivers, with further significant differences between biomes. We estimate that rivers export 18 ± 4 Tg DBC year-1 globally and that, including particulate BC fluxes, total riverine export amounts to 43 ± 15 Tg BC year-1 (12 ± 5% of the OC flux). While rivers export ~1% of the OC sequestered by terrestrial vegetation, our estimates suggest that 34 ± 26% of the BC produced by landscape fires has an oceanic fate. Biogeochemical models require modification to account for the unique dynamics of BC and to predict the response of recalcitrant OC export to changing environmental conditions.

Water repellency reduces soil CO2 efflux upon rewetting.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux from soil represents one of the biggest ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes and high-magnitude pulses caused by rainfall make a substantial contribution to the overall C emissions. It is widely accepted that the drier the soil, the larger the CO2 pulses will be, but this notion has never been tested for water-repellent soils. Soil water repellency (SWR) is a common feature of many soils and is especially prominent after dry periods or fires. An important unanswered question is to what degree SWR affects common assumptions about soil CO2 dynamics. To address this, our study investigates, for the first time, the effect of SWR on the CO2 pulse upon wetting for water-repellent soils from recently burned forest sites. CO2 efflux measurements in response to simulated wetting were conducted both under laboratory and in situ conditions. Experiments were conducted on severely and extremely water-repellent soils, with a wettable scenario simulated by adding a wetting agent to the water. CO2 efflux upon rewetting was significantly lower in the water-repellent scenarios. Under laboratory conditions, CO2 pulse was up to four times lower under the water-repellent scenario as a result of limited wetting, with 70% of applied water draining rapidly via preferential flow paths, leaving much of the soil dry. We suggest that the predominant cause of the lower CO2 pulse in water-repellent soils was the smaller volume of pores in which the CO2 was replaced by infiltrating water, compared to wettable soil. This study shows that SWR should be considered as an important factor when measuring or predicting the CO2 flush upon rewetting of dry soils. Although this study focused mainly on short-term effects of rewetting on CO2 fluxes, the overall implications of SWR on physical changes in soil conditions can be long lasting, with overall larger consequences for C dynamics.

Soil seal development under simulated rainfall: Structural, physical and hydrological dynamics.

This study delivers new insights into rainfall-induced seal formation through a novel approach in the use of X-ray Computed Tomography (CT). Up to now seal and crust thickness have been directly quantified mainly through visual examination of sealed/crusted surfaces, and there has been no quantitative method to estimate this important property. X-ray CT images were quantitatively analysed to derive formal measures of seal and crust thickness. A factorial experiment was established in the laboratory using open-topped microcosms packed with soil. The factors investigated were soil type (three soils: silty clay loam - ZCL, sandy silt loam - SZL, sandy loam - SL) and rainfall duration (2-14 min). Surface seal formation was induced by applying artificial rainfall events, characterised by variable duration, but constant kinetic energy, intensity, and raindrop size distribution. Soil porosities derived from CT scans were used to quantify the thickness of the rainfall-induced surface seals and reveal temporal seal micro-morphological variations with increasing rainfall duration. In addition, the water repellency and infiltration dynamics of the developing seals were investigated by measuring water drop penetration time (WDPT) and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (Kun). The range of seal thicknesses detected varied from 0.6 to 5.4 mm. Soil textural characteristics and OM content played a central role in the development of rainfall-induced seals, with coarser soil particles and lower OM content resulting in thicker seals. Two different trends in soil porosity vs. depth were identified: i) for SL soil porosity was lowest at the immediate soil surface, it then increased constantly with depth till the median porosity of undisturbed soil was equalled; ii) for ZCL and SL the highest reduction in porosity, as compared to the median porosity of undisturbed soil, was observed in a well-defined zone of maximum porosity reduction c. 0.24-0.48 mm below the soil surface. This contrasting behaviour was related to different dynamics and processes of seal formation which depended on the soil properties. The impact of rainfall-induced surface sealing on the hydrological behaviour of soil (as represented by WDTP and Kun) was rapid and substantial: an average 60% reduction in Kun occurred for all soils between 2 and 9 min rainfall, and water repellent surfaces were identified for SZL and ZCL. This highlights that the condition of the immediate surface of agricultural soils involving rainfall-induced structural seals has a strong impact in the overall ability of soil to function as water reservoir.

Prescribed fire and its impacts on ecosystem services in the UK.

The impacts of vegetation fires on ecosystems are complex and varied affecting a range of important ecosystem services. Fire has the potential to affect the physicochemical and ecological status of water systems, alter several aspects of the carbon cycle (e.g. above- and below-ground carbon storage) and trigger changes in vegetation type and structure. Globally, fire is an essential part of land management in fire-prone regions in, e.g. Australia, the USA and some Mediterranean countries to mitigate the likelihood of catastrophic wildfires and sustain healthy ecosystems. In the less-fire prone UK, fire has a long history of usage in management for enhancing the productivity of heather, red grouse and sheep. This distinctly different socioeconomic tradition of burning underlies some of the controversy in recent decades in the UK around the use of fire. Negative public opinion and opposition from popular media have highlighted concerns around the detrimental impacts burning can have on the health and diversity of upland habitats. It is evident there are many gaps in the current knowledge around the environmental impacts of prescribed burning in less fire-prone regions (e.g. UK). Land owners and managers require a greater level of certainty on the advantages and disadvantages of prescribed burning in comparison to other techniques to better inform management practices. This paper addresses this gap by providing a critical review of published work and future research directions related to the impacts of prescribed fire on three key aspects of ecosystem services: (i) water quality, (ii) carbon dynamics and (iii) habitat composition and structure (biodiversity). Its overall aims are to provide guidance based on the current state-of-the-art for researchers, land owners, managers and policy makers on the potential effects of the use of burning and to inform the wider debate about the place of fire in modern conservation and land management in humid temperate ecosystems.

Impact of a moderate/high-severity prescribed eucalypt forest fire on soil phosphorous stocks and partitioning.

This study examines the direct impact of a moderate/high-severity prescribed fire on phosphorous (P) stocks and partitioning in oligotrophic soils of a dry eucalypt forest within Sydney's water supply catchments, Australia. We also quantify and characterize the P present in the ash produced in this fire, and explore its relationships with the maximum temperatures recorded in the litter layer during the burn. In these oligotrophic soils, P concentrations were already relatively low before the fire (<130mgkg-1, mainly in organic forms). The fire consumed the entire litter layer and the thin Oa soil horizon, creating 6.3±3.1tha-1 of ash, and resulted into direct net P losses of ~7kgha-1. The P lost was mostly organic and there was a moderate net gain of inorganic and non-reactive P forms. Importantly, only a small proportion of the post-fire P was bioavailable (equivalent to ~3% of the total P lost during fire). Higher total P concentrations in ash corresponded with higher maximum temperatures (>650°C) recorded in the burning litter layer, but effects of fire temperature on ash P partitioning were not significant. Fire not only transformed P chemically, but also physically. Our results show that, immediately after fire, up to 2kgha-1 of P was present in the ash layer and, therefore, highly erodible and susceptible to be transported off-site by wind- and water erosion. Even if most of this P was, initially, of low bioavailability, its transfer to depositional environments with different geochemical conditions (e.g. anoxic sediments in water reservoirs) can alter its geochemical forms and availability. Further investigation of potential P transformations off-site is therefore essential, particularly given that SE-Australian water supply catchments are subject to recurrent perturbation by prescribed fire and wildfires. The latter have already resulted in major algal blooms in water supply reservoirs.

Carbon sequestration potential and physicochemical properties differ between wildfire charcoals and slow-pyrolysis biochars.

Pyrogenic carbon (PyC), produced naturally (wildfire charcoal) and anthropogenically (biochar), is extensively studied due to its importance in several disciplines, including global climate dynamics, agronomy and paleosciences. Charcoal and biochar are commonly used as analogues for each other to infer respective carbon sequestration potentials, production conditions, and environmental roles and fates. The direct comparability of corresponding natural and anthropogenic PyC, however, has never been tested. Here we compared key physicochemical properties (elemental composition, δ13C and PAHs signatures, chemical recalcitrance, density and porosity) and carbon sequestration potentials of PyC materials formed from two identical feedstocks (pine forest floor and wood) under wildfire charring- and slow-pyrolysis conditions. Wildfire charcoals were formed under higher maximum temperatures and oxygen availabilities, but much shorter heating durations than slow-pyrolysis biochars, resulting in differing physicochemical properties. These differences are particularly relevant regarding their respective roles as carbon sinks, as even the wildfire charcoals formed at the highest temperatures had lower carbon sequestration potentials than most slow-pyrolysis biochars. Our results challenge the common notion that natural charcoal and biochar are well suited as proxies for each other, and suggest that biochar's environmental residence time may be underestimated when based on natural charcoal as a proxy, and vice versa.

Size fractionation as a tool for separating charcoal of different fuel source and recalcitrance in the wildfire ash layer.

Charcoal is a heterogeneous material exhibiting a diverse range of properties. This variability represents a serious challenge in studies that use the properties of natural charcoal for reconstructing wildfires history in terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that particle size is a sufficiently robust indicator for separating forest wildfire combustion products into fractions with distinct properties. For this purpose, we examined two different forest environments affected by contrasting wildfires in terms of severity: an eucalypt forest in Australia, which experienced an extremely severe wildfire, and a Mediterranean pine forest in Italy, which burned to moderate severity. We fractionated the ash/charcoal layers collected on the ground into four size fractions (>2, 2-1, 1-0.5, <0.5mm) and analysed them for mineral ash content, elemental composition, chemical structure (by IR spectroscopy), fuel source and charcoal reflectance (by reflected-light microscopy), and chemical/thermal recalcitrance (by chemical and thermal oxidation). At both sites, the finest fraction (<0.5mm) had, by far, the greatest mass. The C concentration and C/N ratio decreased with decreasing size fraction, while pH and the mineral ash content followed the opposite trend. The coarser fractions showed higher contribution of amorphous carbon and stronger recalcitrance. We also observed that certain fuel types were preferentially represented by particular size fractions. We conclude that the differences between ash/charcoal size fractions were most likely primarily imposed by fuel source and secondarily by burning conditions. Size fractionation can therefore serve as a valuable tool to characterise the forest wildfire combustion products, as each fraction displays a narrower range of properties than the whole sample. We propose the mineral ash content of the fractions as criterion for selecting the appropriate number of fractions to analyse.

The role of fire in UK peatland and moorland management: the need for informed, unbiased debate.

Fire has been used for centuries to generate and manage some of the UK's cultural landscapes. Despite its complex role in the ecology of UK peatlands and moorlands, there has been a trend of simplifying the narrative around burning to present it as an only ecologically damaging practice. That fire modifies peatland characteristics at a range of scales is clearly understood. Whether these changes are perceived as positive or negative depends upon how trade-offs are made between ecosystem services and the spatial and temporal scales of concern. Here we explore the complex interactions and trade-offs in peatland fire management, evaluating the benefits and costs of managed fire as they are currently understood. We highlight the need for (i) distinguishing between the impacts of fires occurring with differing severity and frequency, and (ii) improved characterization of ecosystem health that incorporates the response and recovery of peatlands to fire. We also explore how recent research has been contextualized within both scientific publications and the wider media and how this can influence non-specialist perceptions. We emphasize the need for an informed, unbiased debate on fire as an ecological management tool that is separated from other aspects of moorland management and from political and economic opinions.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world.

Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth's surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined. Global predictions for increased fire under a warming climate highlight the already urgent need for a more sustainable coexistence with fire. The data evaluation presented here aims to contribute to this by reducing misconceptions and facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.This article is part of themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

Fire effects on soils: the human dimension.

Soils are among the most valuable non-renewable resources on the Earth. They support natural vegetation and human agro-ecosystems, represent the largest terrestrial organic carbon stock, and act as stores and filters for water. Mankind has impacted on soils from its early days in many different ways, with burning being the first human perturbation at landscape scales. Fire has long been used as a tool to fertilize soils and control plant growth, but it can also substantially change vegetation, enhance soil erosion and even cause desertification of previously productive areas. Indeed fire is now regarded by some as the seventh soil-forming factor. Here we explore the effects of fire on soils as influenced by human interference. Human-induced fires have shaped our landscape for thousands of years and they are currently the most common fires in many parts of the world. We first give an overview of fire effect on soils and then focus specifically on (i) how traditional land-use practices involving fire, such as slash-and-burn or vegetation clearing, have affected and still are affecting soils; (ii) the effects of more modern uses of fire, such as fuel reduction or ecological burns, on soils; and (iii) the ongoing and potential future effects on soils of the complex interactions between human-induced land cover changes, climate warming and fire dynamics.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

Towards a global assessment of pyrogenic carbon from vegetation fires.

The production of pyrogenic carbon (PyC; a continuum of organic carbon (C) ranging from partially charred biomass and charcoal to soot) is a widely acknowledged C sink, with the latest estimates indicating that ~50% of the PyC produced by vegetation fires potentially sequesters C over centuries. Nevertheless, the quantitative importance of PyC in the global C balance remains contentious, and therefore, PyC is rarely considered in global C cycle and climate studies. Here we examine the robustness of existing evidence and identify the main research gaps in the production, fluxes and fate of PyC from vegetation fires. Much of the previous work on PyC production has focused on selected components of total PyC generated in vegetation fires, likely leading to underestimates. We suggest that global PyC production could be in the range of 116-385 Tg C yr(-1) , that is ~0.2-0.6% of the annual terrestrial net primary production. According to our estimations, atmospheric emissions of soot/black C might be a smaller fraction of total PyC (<2%) than previously reported. Research on the fate of PyC in the environment has mainly focused on its degradation pathways, and its accumulation and resilience either in situ (surface soils) or in ultimate sinks (marine sediments). Off-site transport, transformation and PyC storage in intermediate pools are often overlooked, which could explain the fate of a substantial fraction of the PyC mobilized annually. We propose new research directions addressing gaps in the global PyC cycle to fully understand the importance of the products of burning in global C cycle dynamics.

Quantity, composition and water contamination potential of ash produced under different wildfire severities.

Wildfires frequently threaten water quality through the transfer of eroded ash and soil into rivers and reservoirs. The ability to anticipate risks for water resources from wildfires is fundamental for implementing effective fire preparedness plans and post-fire mitigation measures. Here we present a new approach that allows quantifying the amount and characteristics of ash generated under different wildfire severities and its respective water contamination potential. This approach is applied to a wildfire in an Australian dry sclerophyll eucalypt forest, but can be adapted for use in other environments. The Balmoral fire of October 2013 affected 12,694 ha of Sydney's forested water supply catchment. It produced substantial ash loads that increased with fire severity, with 6, 16 and 34 Mg ha(-1) found in areas affected by low, high and extreme fire severity, respectively. Ash bulk density was also positively related to fire severity. The increase with fire severity in the total load and bulk density of the ash generated is mainly attributed to a combination of associated increases in (i) total amount of fuel affected by fire and (ii) contribution of charred mineral soil to the ash layer. Total concentrations of pollutants and nutrients in ash were mostly unrelated to fire severity and relatively low compared to values reported for wildfire ash in other environments (e.g. 4.0-7.3mg As kg(-1); 2.3-4.1 B mg kg(-1); 136-154 P mg kg(-1)). Solubility of the elements analysed was also low, less than 10% of the total concentration for all elements except for B (6-14%) and Na (30-50%). This could be related to a partial loss of soluble components by leaching and/or wind erosion before the ash sampling (10 weeks after the fire and before major ash mobilisation by water erosion). Even with their relatively low concentrations of potential pollutants, the substantial total ash loads found here represent a water contamination risk if transported into the hydrological network during severe erosion events. For example, up to 4 Mg of ash-derived P could be delivered into a single water supply reservoir.